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China’s producer price index (PPI) fell by 4.6 per cent last month, year on year. Photo: AFP

China’s central bank chief calls for ‘confidence, patience’ amid weak economic data

  • Central bank governor Yi Gang said on Friday that ‘China has strong economic resilience, big [growth] potential and ample policy space’
  • China’s consumer prices grew mildly in May, while factory-gate deflation deepened, adding to concerns over the economy

China’s economic growth is on the track and consumer inflation will gradually rise later this year, central bank governor Yi Gang said on Friday, appealing for confidence and patience after weak price data triggered concerns over deflation that may hamper the post-coronavirus recovery.

May’s consumer price index (CPI) fell just short of expectations and rose by 0.2 per cent from a year earlier, up from 0.1 per cent growth in April, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) earlier on Friday.

But it is expected to rise to 1 per cent by the end of the year, said Yi, head of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), during a field trip in Shanghai.

Yi pointed to last year’s high oil and food prices, the base effect to blame for the very low consumer inflation in April and May, and also the lag in consumption after China’s reopening.

China has strong economic resilience, big [growth] potential and ample policy space
Yi Gang

“China has strong economic resilience, big [growth] potential and ample policy space,” he said.

“[We] should have confidence and patience for China’s steady economic growth.”

He added that China is expected to see “relatively high” economic growth in the second quarter due to base effects. China’s economy grew by just 0.4 per cent, year on year, in the second quarter of 2022 due to Beijing’s strict virus controls.

China’s producer price index (PPI), meanwhile, also fell short of expectations and tumbled by 4.6 per cent in May compared to the previous year, hitting its lowest level since February 2016, as the prices factories charge wholesalers for their products dwindled.

The weak price data fuelled market concerns about weak demand and also Beijing’s reluctance for strong stimulus to help the economy.

The ongoing debate over deflation risks is also a test to Beijing’s policymakers, who are increasingly being urged to roll out stronger monetary support, including policy rate cuts and financing support, to help shore up the economy.

Yi said the PBOC will enhance countercyclical adjustments and use a variety of monetary tools to maintain reasonably ample liquidity and appropriate credit supply, while also lowering the borrowing costs of market entities.

Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Capital, said more policy support is needed to boost market confidence.

“That is the only game changer,” he said.

As China’s economic rebound falls short of market expectations, Hu expects Beijing to release a robust wave of stimulus measures, including boosting consumer spending.

The risk of deflation is still weighing on the economy
Zhang Zhiwei

The slight rise in the CPI was largely supported by a pickup of food prices, which rose by 1 per cent year on year as fruit prices surged by 3.4 per cent.

But China’s CPI is, Hu added, probably at the bottom and may start to climb in the second half of the year.

China’s core consumer inflation rate, excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, rose by 0.6 per cent in May compared with a year earlier, down from 0.7 per cent growth in April.

“The risk of deflation is still weighing on the economy,” said Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

“Recent economic indicators send consistent signals that the economy is cooling. The government has not sent a clear signal on potential policy stimulus.”

Earlier this week, data released confirmed China’s exports fell by 7.5 per cent in May compared with a year earlier, while imports fell by 4.5 per cent last month.

It is widely expected that Beijing will review its policies in July, when the Politburo headed by President Xi Jinping will make decisions upon the release of the second quarter gross domestic product data.

“We doubt inflation will become a barrier to increased policy support. Instead, the main constraint facing policymakers has to do with financial risks,” said economists at Capital Economics.

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The 3 per cent CPI control target set by Beijing at the beginning of the year will not be tested, but more stimulative policies are likely to be introduced to warm the gradually chilling economy, such as bringing more cash flow to the market, they added.

“We expect the [central bank] to ease policy somewhat in the near-term but that, in order to limit the impact on bank margins, it will favour tools such as window guidance and [reserve requirement ratio] reductions instead of policy rate cuts,” the economists at Capital Economics said.

China’s central bank last cut the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks by 25 basis points in late March, injecting 500 billion yuan (US$70.2 billion) of funds into the market after lowering the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve.
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